We concluded a call with the National Weather Service and Virginia Department of Emergency Management regarding Hurricane Lee. Bottom line: it’s still too early to tell where the storm is going to head.
Please review the two documents: The Cone of Uncertainty and the Spaghetti Models. The former reflects high confidence where the eye of this major storm will be over the next few days. The latter shows consistency among models having the storm take a northerly turn after 120 hours (5 days).
Two things to keep in mind:
- Forecasts outside of 36 hours are not very reliable… we are not out of the woods and can’t let our guard down. Now is very much the time to review plans and prepare for “what if?”
- Should Lee move in the northerly direction Wednesday or so, significant coastal flooding can still be a reality.
We will continue to monitor over the weekend, but there are no local, regional, or state calls anticipated. We should know much more come Monday and are committed to keeping you informed.
Thanks and enjoy your weekend!
Director, Emergency Preparedness and Response