Please be advised Norfolk is currently under a High Wind Watch, which will be upgrade to a High Wind Warning beginning tomorrow, March 2 at 4am until March 3 at 6am. Moreover, Norfolk is under a Coastal Flood Watch beginning March 2 at 7am until March 4 at 5am.
Please take a moment to review the Decision Support Brief provide by the National Weather Service this morning located at https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/briefings/LatestBriefing.pdf. There you will see the forecast information for tomorrow and the weekend.
In reference to the NWS Hourly Graphic for Friday into Saturday (click here for Sat into Sun), you will see the winds picking up late this evening and peaking with 45mph gusts / 30mph sustained tomorrow around noon. (Note: NWS is calling for wind gusts of 45-55mph which could result in downed trees and power lines). Winds decrease just a bit over night and fall to around 30mph gusts / 22mph sustained Saturday late afternoon into evening.
Messaging to the community should include securing loose yard items, etc.
The Tidal chart shows the stacking effect associated with Nor’easters beginning at Friday night’s 9:39pm high tide. This tide should see some typical ponding / flooding in the usual areas. The next high tide scheduled to peak Saturday at 10:05am approaches the Moderate flood level of 5.5’ and then Saturday evening’s 10:26pm high tide approaches Major flooding.
Everyone is welcome to check out TITAN (Tidal Inundation Tracking Application for Norfolk) at http://gisapp1.norfolk.gov/TITAN/HOME.aspx. IMPORTANT!!! The forecast tide level is referencing a different datum than NAVD88 which TITAN uses. Therefore, when entering the flood layer, go with a foot lower in TITAN that what is reflected in the tide chart. In other words, with a tide of 6.5’, enter 5.5’ for a more accurate view.
Dune erosion is likely with this event.
From Jeff Orrock, Meterologist-in-Charge at the NWS in Wakefield: “We have some experimental guidance which helps us combine tides and wave action predicting the resulting damage along the coast. The long duration swell and high waves will pile water up along the coast this weekend. This combined with high water levels looks to result in significant damaging to our coastline in the form of severe erosion of the beaches and dunes. Some overwash and cuts across the barrier islands in vulnerable weak areas is possible. Major flooding and impacts are likely this weekend
High water, waves and beach damage will be prolonged impacting the coast and lower Bay starting Saturday through Monday morning. This will be a prolonged event lasting the entire weekend. The prolonged nature of the storm will result in more severe coastal erosion and damage. Overwash along the Eastern Shore of VA and MD could push water levels higher at locations such as Chincoteague, Wachapreague and Oyster
Track local tide forecasts at https://www.weather.gov/akq/CoastalFlooding and https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=AKQ
The experimental viewer can me found online at https://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/research/twlviewer/”
Norfolk EOC will continue to monitor and keep you posted. Next NWS Decision Brief is expected at 5pm this evening.
Emergency Preparedness & Response
3661 E. Virginia Beach Blvd.
Norfolk, VA 23502
757-441-5533 | 757-641-6398 mobile